Is the GOP finally about to splinter?

Appeasing the hard-right flank was never going to be sustainable for the GOP

Oct 05, 2023

This week’s historic sacking of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has raised critical questions about the sustainability of today’s Republican party. For the first time in American History, the speaker’s office has been vacated by a formal congressional vote made virtually inevitable by new rules McCarthy agreed to in January in order to secure the speakership over objections from fellow Republicans.

McCarthy’s ouster, brought about by terminal infighting between mainstream Republicans and the party’s hard-right flank, illustrates in stark terms just how irreconcilable differences have become between nihilistic MAGA Republicans and GOP party moderates.

The motion to vacate the speakership was filed by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Flor.) of the MAGA faction, ostensibly in retaliation for McCarthy’s cooperation with Democrats on September 30th in preventing an October government shutdown—which the destructive MAGA faction insisted should take place.

As for Democrats, McCarthy made it clear he would make no deals with them in exchange for their protection. After all, doing so, no matter how justified, would have infuriated even more members of the hard-right flank which McCarthy was still seeking quite futilely to appease.

Democrats had little reason to support McCarthy, who’d been normalizing MAGA, downplaying the January 6th riots, and holding presidential impeachment hearings without evidence. His overtures toward MAGA Republicans had produced needless exercises in political brinkmanship over both the debt ceiling and the threat of government shutdown.

After caucusing behind closed doors on Tuesday, Democrats agreed to wash their hands of the GOP’s internal dysfunction by voting not to support the embattled speaker.

Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah) is reported on Wednesday to have said:

“I think Speaker McCarthy made a decision to get as close as he possibly could to the radical wing of his party and by doing that he made it virtually impossible for the Democrats to come to his aid.”

Democrats made the decision before knowing how many MAGA Republicans Gaetz had enlisted to support his motion to vacate—the way things looked at the time, it still could have gone either way.

Meanwhile, since the vote, Gaetz seems to be facing retribution from others within his party. Luke Broadwater, congressional reporter for The New York Times, wrote,

“Representative Matt Gaetz’s successful push to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy has cemented his status as one of the most reviled members of the House of Representatives — including among many of his fellow Republicans — and drawn attention to a long-running investigation by the House Ethics Committee into Mr. Gaetz’s conduct.”

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich called for Gaetz’ expulsion in a scathing Washington Post op-ed:

“Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) is an anti-Republican who has become actively destructive to the conservative movement....He is destroying the House GOP’s ability to govern…

Similar sentiments have since been expressed for all eight Republicans who voted for the ouster: Andy Biggs and Eli Crane of Arizona, Ken Buck of Colorado, Tim Burchett of Tennessee, Bob Good of Virginia, Nancy Mace of South Carolina, Matt Rosendale of Montana, and Gaetz.

Following the vote, House Speaker pro tempore Patrick McHenry (a McCarthy ally) declared an immediate recess before angrily smashing the gavel down hard. At least one member of Congress was reported to be in tears. Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA) told CNN, “I’ll be really candid. I think if we had stayed together in the meeting last night, I think that you would have seen fists thrown.”

However needful a cooling-off period might be, the recess comes at a time when Congress only has until November 17th to once again avoid a federal government shutdown. The original Biden-negotiated budget deal, which McCarthy reneged on last month—again, in a bid to appease the far-right faction—included aid for Ukraine which Senate GOP leaders strongly support. (This month’s narrowly averted shutdown left Ukraine aid out of the budget.)

Alexander Bolton of The Hill wrote about the alarm and disbelief with which Senate Republicans watched the House revolt:

“Senate Republicans are watching the rebellion against Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in the House with serious alarm and are concerned over what the chaos will mean for the GOP’s brand in the 2024 election.
“GOP senators are worried about the party’s ability to govern over the next 13 months and whether they’ll be able to avoid a government shutdown later this year.”

There remains the heavy question of how on earth a new speaker is to be elected so that the House can still function. McCarthy had to negotiate heavily with the MAGA faction in January just to become Speaker in the first place.

Whether the party splinters over this episode or not, something, it appears, is beginning to give. As one user aptly quipped on X,